The battle to qualify for next season’s UEFA Champions League is heating up, and the chance of an extra spot in the competition will give clubs even more hope. Can Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth spring a surprise? We take a look at the Opta supercomputer projections.
The race for Champions League qualification in the Premier League is more intense than ever, with seven clubs likely to be fighting for a spot in the 2025-26 league phase. It appears that five English clubs, rather than four, will qualify for next season’s competition, as the strong performance of Premier League teams in European competitions this campaign is boosting England’s position in the seasonal UEFA coefficient rankings.
Liverpool and Arsenal Lead the Pack
The first two of those spots look set to be secured, as Liverpool and Arsenal begin to pull away from the rest. Even if Manchester City and Newcastle United – who currently occupy fifth and sixth place in the table with 41 points each – win all of their remaining 14 Premier League games this season, their highest possible points total would be 83 points. This means Liverpool only need to win 28 points in their final 15 matches to guarantee a top-four finish.
The Race for the Remaining Spots
While it’s hardly surprising to see Liverpool and Arsenal practically guaranteed Champions League football next season, the race for the other top-four (or five) spots is where the most interesting story unfolds. Manchester City may have suffered a pretty horrific run of form in recent months, but the Opta supercomputer still believes they can finish strongly and secure a top-four berth.
Nottingham Forest and Bournemouth, two teams who have never played in the UEFA Champions League, have a serious chance of making it to the competition this season. Forest sit third, with a five-point cushion over Chelsea in fourth place, and the Opta supercomputer gives them a near 50-50 chance of finishing in the top four (48.4%). If Champions League qualification is opened up to the top five teams in the Premier League, their chances increase by over 21 percentage points (69.7%).
Bournemouth, on the other hand, have never played in European competition before, and just 15 years ago they were playing football in England’s fourth tier. Now, with Andoni Iraola at the helm, they have a real chance of qualifying for Europe. The Cherries finish inside the top five places in 33.8% of the latest supercomputer simulations, which is likely to mean Champions League football, but it also gives them a bigger chance of qualifying for the Europa League or the Conference League, as those qualification spots will move down to sixth and seventh in the table.
