Last season, the Premier League failed in its efforts to secure an additional Champions League qualifying spot, but the situation has taken a more promising turn in the past 12 months. Two of UEFA’s domestic leagues will be rewarded with an extra Champions League slot for the 2023-24 season, and it appears almost certain that the Premier League will be one of them, meaning the division’s top five teams will all qualify for next season’s edition of the prestigious competition.
According to Opta’s prediction model, the Premier League now has a 99.4% chance of finishing as one of UEFA’s two best-performing associations this season, which suggests that the traditional talk of clubs aiming for a “top-four finish” should be expanded to include a top-five target.
This development is good news for those concerned about a lack of jeopardy in the closing weeks of the season, with Liverpool seemingly cruising to the title and the promoted sides potentially filling the division’s bottom three for the second campaign in a row. Instead, Premier League observers should focus on what promises to be a feverish battle to finish in the top five, with every club down to Tottenham Hotspur in 12th deemed by Opta’s supercomputer to have at least some chance of finishing in the division’s upper quarter.
Liverpool
If Liverpool qualify for the Champions League, it’s effectively a foregone conclusion. Arne Slot’s side have been a model of consistency, with just one defeat in 27 league matches, and are the highest scorers in the Premier League with the second-best defensive record. For them to miss out, they would have to spectacularly implode during the run-in, which is highly unlikely.
Qualifying for the Champions League would be huge for Liverpool, both in terms of prestige and finance. As six-time champions of Europe, they stand to earn at least €100 million (£84 million, $104 million) from the competition this season.
Arsenal
Arsenal have grown into one of the most consistent teams in the Premier League, conceding the fewest goals in the league (23) despite injuries to key players. Barring a significant downturn in form or a continued struggle with injuries and suspensions, Arsenal should secure Champions League qualification.
Returning to Europe’s top table is a must for Arsenal’s growth, and qualifying for the Champions League would also generate more revenue for the club.
Nottingham Forest
If Nottingham Forest qualify for the Champions League, it would be a fairytale ending to a remarkable season. The impressive recruitment of players like Murillo, Nikola Milenkovic, Elliot Anderson, Anthony Elanga, and Chris Wood, combined with the sense of unity instilled by Nuno Espirito Santo, have put Forest in contention for a top-five finish.
Financially, Champions League qualification would be massive for Forest, but more than that, missing out on something that is now within touching distance would be emotionally draining for the club and its supporters.
Call to Action: With a full slate of Premier League fixtures on the horizon, the race for Champions League qualification promises to be one of the most exciting storylines in the closing weeks of the season. Keep an eye on the key matchups and the performances of these top contenders as they battle to secure their place among Europe’s elite.
