Here is the content rewritten in English:
The Premier League’s Fifth Champions League Spot is Up for Grabs
Last season, the Premier League narrowly missed out on an additional qualifying place for the Champions League, but the situation looks much more promising this year.
As in 2023-24, two of UEFA’s domestic leagues will be rewarded with an extra slot. Last season, Germany’s Bundesliga and Italy’s Serie A came top of the seasonal coefficient rankings, allowing Borussia Dortmund and Bologna access to the continent’s most prestigious competition in 2024-25. This season, the Premier League is virtually certain to grab one of those spots, meaning the division’s top five teams will all qualify for next season’s edition.
According to Opta’s prediction model, the Premier League now has a 99.4% chance of finishing as one of UEFA’s two best-performing associations this season, so the old notion of clubs aiming for a ‘top-four finish’ should be expanded to the top five. There’s even a slim chance of having seven Premier League sides in next season’s Champions League, comprised of the top five, the defending European champions (likely Aston Villa) who finished outside the Premier League’s top five, plus one of Manchester United or Tottenham Hotspur qualifying as Europa League winners.
This increased jeopardy in the closing weeks of the season is welcome news, with Liverpool seemingly cruising to the title and the promoted sides looking set to fill the division’s bottom three once again.
Now, the focus shifts to a fierce battle to finish in the top five, with every club down to Tottenham Hotspur in 12th deemed by Opta’s supercomputer to have at least some chance of securing a Champions League spot.
Liverpool
If they qualify for the Champions League, it’s because…
There’s no ‘if’ here – it’s a done deal. Liverpool are 20 points clear of fourth-placed Manchester City as they close in on their 20th top-flight title. With just one defeat in 27 league matches, Arne Slot’s side have been a model of consistency.
If they don’t, it’s because…
They’ve had a spectacular implosion during the run-in. Injuries would have to cut deep, and the wheels would have to come off as the pressure cranks up. But that’s highly unlikely.
How important would qualifying be?
Competing among Europe’s elite is huge for Liverpool in terms of both prestige and finance. The six-time champions of Europe stand to earn at least €100 million (£84m, $104m) from the Champions League this season.
Arsenal
If they qualify for the Champions League, it’s because…
Arsenal have grown into one of the most consistent teams in the Premier League, conceding the fewest goals (23) despite injuries to key players.
If they don’t, it’s because…
Injuries and suspensions have defined Arsenal’s season, but that shouldn’t impact Champions League qualification.
How important would qualifying be?
It’s major. Returning to Europe’s top table is a key part of their growth, and it also generates more revenue for the club.
Nottingham Forest
If they qualify for the Champions League, it’s because…
They’ve written a fairytale ending to this remarkable season, thanks to impressive recruitment and the unity instilled by manager Nuno Espirito Santo.
If they don’t, it’s because…
This is entirely new territory for Forest, who spent the previous two seasons fighting against relegation. Nuno’s experience will be vital.
How important would qualifying be?
Financially, it would be massive. But more than that, missing out on something so unexpected would be emotionally draining.
Manchester City
If they qualify for the Champions League, it’s because…
They’ve found a way to battle through the limitations in midfield and the injury crisis in defence.
If they don’t, it’s because…
Key defenders don’t stay fit, and the midfielders and wingers fail to consistently perform.
How important would qualifying be?
Vital, given the huge difference in prize money between the Champions League and Europa League.
Newcastle United
If they qualify for the Champions League, it’s because…
They have a good team with elite players like Alexander Isak, and their recent form has been excellent.
If they don’t, it’s because…
Their consistency is not quite what it seems, as they’ve lost three of their last five league games and lack squad depth.
How important would qualifying be?
Europe was the target, but the Champions League is where their top players aspire to be. The extra revenue would also be crucial.
Bournemouth
If they qualify for the Champions League, it’s because…
Key players are returning from injury, and they have a fantastic record against their top-five competitors.
If they don’t, it’s because…
Their difficult run-in, including games against Brighton, Tottenham, Arsenal, and Manchester City, proves too much.
How important would qualifying be?
Bournemouth have never finished higher than ninth in the Premier League, so reaching the Champions League would be a meteoric rise.
Chelsea
If they qualify for the Champions League, it’s because…
Cole Palmer rediscovers his form and becomes the driving force behind their results.
If they don’t, it’s because…
They continue to struggle defensively, with too many individual errors leading to dropped points.
How important would qualifying be?
Crucial, both financially and in terms of prestige. It would also help keep Palmer happy at the club.
Aston Villa
If they qualify for the Champions League, it’s because…
They go on an outstanding end-of-season run, something they’ve struggled to achieve so far this campaign.
If they don’t, it’s because…
Their ongoing defensive fragilities and lack of consistency continue to hold them back.
How important would qualifying be?
Hugely important, as it would unlock Champions League riches and allow Villa to better navigate the Premier League’s Profitability and Sustainability Rules.
Brighton & Hove Albion
If they qualify for the Champions League, it’s because…
Their attacking firepower produces the wins they need to finish the season strongly.
If they don’t, it’s because…
Injuries continue to undermine manager Fabian Hurzeler’s ability to field a settled side.
How important would qualifying be?
Qualifying for Europe in any form is the ambition, whether that’s the Champions League, Europa League, or Conference League.
In conclusion, the race for the Premier League’s fifth Champions League spot promises to be fiercely contested, with a realistic chance for more than half the division to secure a place in Europe’s premier competition. The increased jeopardy should make for an exciting end to the season.
